Aluminum Prices Hit Three-Month New Low
On Wednesday, June 25, LME aluminum futures fell to a low of $3,110, the lowest in nearly three months. Since entering June, LME aluminum futures have fallen nearly 15% ($544), mainly affected by a strong dollar and the retreat of Middle East risk premiums. Hawkish Fed expectations intensified, with December rate hike probability rising to 86.1%; the US dollar index touched a 13-month high. Meanwhile, Middle East geopolitical tensions eased, Hormuz Strait shipping gradually recovered, and geopolitical risk premiums accelerated clearance.
Supply-Demand Fundamentals Diverge
Fundamentally, domestic operating capacity approaches 45 million tons; weekly output in June maintained a high of 869,400 tons, capacity utilization reached 98.12%, but average fully loaded cost was 15,725 yuan/ton, with aluminum profit per ton reaching 8,581 yuan/ton. Positive changes appeared in inventory; national mainstream electrolytic aluminum inventory began to deplete. Macquarie expects aluminum prices to enter a gradual downward channel until the end of 2028, maintaining an oscillation pattern in the short term.