Key Facts
Nickel prices surged in late trading last night, returning above 130,000 yuan/tonne, and continued to strengthen today, at one point gaining more than 2%. On the news front, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has basically finalized the RKAB quota with a moderate relaxation and only targeted gap-filling, without a full-scale release of new ore supplies, and will prioritize allocations to parties paying higher royalties, which theoretically supports costs at the raw-material ore end.
Policy and Trade
Refined nickel inventories at home and abroad remain high, with LME nickel warrants staying above 200,000 tonnes, and high inventories are capping further upside for nickel prices. Short-term policy expectations have driven a rebound in nickel prices, but the reality of off-season inventory accumulation is unlikely to reverse quickly; the previous high of 134,000 yuan/tonne is a resistance level.