Key Facts
The global copper market has fallen into supply tightness due to anticipated US tariff arbitrage. LME copper prices returned to the $14,000 mark, just 1% below the historical high. Traders are accelerating shipments of copper to the United States to avoid potential US import tariffs on refined copper, further tightening spot inventories in other regions.
Policy and Trade
In July last year, US President Donald Trump directed the Commerce Department to study phased tariffs on refined copper imports, with an initial rate of 15% planned for January 2027. LME deliverable spot inventories have fallen to 94,200 tonnes, slightly above one day of global consumption; SHFE copper inventories have dropped from over 430,000 tonnes in March to approximately 69,300 tonnes. COMEX official inventories have risen more than 40% this year, and some institutions estimate total US copper inventories could exceed 1 million tonnes, setting a century record.