Iron Ore Supply Growth Concentrated in H2; Simandou Becomes Largest Marginal Source

Based on second-quarter earnings reports from mining companies, global iron ore production is expected to continue growing in H2 2026, with the full-year supply increase mainly coming from Simandou project capacity release and steady output growth from the four major miners.

Core Facts

Based on the second-quarter earnings reports of mining companies, global iron ore production is expected to continue growing in the second half of 2026. The full-year supply increase will mainly come from capacity release at the Simandou project and steady production growth from the four major miners. As of end-June, the Simandou mining area held 7.6 million metric tons of unbroken ore, system inventories reached 9.6 million metric tons, and permanent crushing facilities are expected to be delivered in the second half of the year. The four major miners' shipments are expected to increase steadily by about 4-6 million metric tons. ArcelorMittal Liberia's H1 production rose 89.9% year on year, maintaining a full-year shipment target of 18 million metric tons.

Projects and Capacity

However, Simandou faces rainy-season impacts, insufficient stability of temporary crushing facilities, and some mines face phased logistics bottlenecks such as car dumper replacements and port maintenance. Iron ore prices have now fallen to around $95/mt, approaching the marginal cost line of around $90/mt for non-mainstream mines. If ore prices decline further, high-cost non-mainstream mines may face production cuts or suspensions, providing reverse adjustment on the supply side, partially offsetting incremental supply and providing price support.