Key facts
On August 6, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) suddenly announced a copper concentrate export ban, igniting market sentiment. Data show the country exported as much as 697,000 tonnes of cathode copper in the first quarter, while copper concentrate exports were only 54,000 tonnes, equivalent to just 19,000 tonnes of contained copper. The actually affected portion is about 260,000 tonnes of contained metal from sulphide copper concentrate, accounting for less than 1.3% of global supply. The sentiment impact far exceeds the actual supply-demand impact.
Policy and trade
LME copper inventories rose from 145,000 tonnes at the start of the year to about 403,000 tonnes by mid-year, then fell to 227,000 tonnes by August 6, showing initial stockpiling followed by rapid destocking, confirming this rally is a supply-side-led short squeeze. Heavy snowfall, rain and strong winds in Chile disrupted mining operations, with May output at 423,700 tonnes, keeping supply tight. The US Department of Commerce submitted its Section 232 tariff report on refined copper at end-June; as planned, a 15% tariff on refined copper will be imposed from early 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. The tariff arbitrage space is pushing up COMEX copper prices and widening the spread with LME.