Speculation that former President Donald Trump may broaden U.S. import duties to cover refined copper has prompted traders to accelerate physical shipments into the United States to capture arbitrage opportunities. This surge in transatlantic flows is actively restructuring global stockpiles, even as aggregate inventories remain elevated.
Citing trade data, reports note that American imports of cathode copper from the Democratic Republic of Congo hit a record 53,290 metric tons in July, representing 23.9 percent of the month’s total inflow. By contrast, full-year DRC shipments in 2024 totaled less than 32,000 metric tons. Because Congolese material lacks COMEX delivery eligibility and typically trades at a discount to LME benchmarks, domestic processors are increasingly relying on these volumes to satisfy immediate physical requirements.
The diversion of metal toward North America is steadily draining LME deliverable stocks, underscoring near-term supply constraints in Western exchanges. Consequently, cash-to-forward spreads have widened sharply into a pronounced spot premium, highlighting how policy expectations are already distorting physical market dynamics and regional price differentials ahead of any formal regulatory changes.